Which weather forecast is most accurate?
Over the last 8 days SMHI had the temperature right 88 % of the hours and MET Norway, whose forecasts Yr shows, 88 %. Compared with SMHI weather stations at 40 places in Sweden, updated 16 October.
SMHI and MET Norway were right about the temperature equally often. MET Norway was right about rain or no rain more often: 90 % against 81 %.
| Measure | SMHI | MET Norway (Yr) |
|---|---|---|
| Temperature right (within 2 degrees) | 88 % | 88 % |
| Average temperature error | 1.0 degrees | 1.0 degrees |
| Rain or no rain right | 81 % | 90 % |
Month by month
The first number is temperature right, the second rain or no rain right.
| Month | SMHI | MET Norway (Yr) |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 88 % rain 81 % | 88 % rain 90 % |
Place by place
The first number is temperature right, the second rain or no rain right.
| Place | SMHI | MET Norway (Yr) |
|---|---|---|
| Abisko Abisko Aut, 0.8 km | 81 % rain 83 % | 84 % rain 87 % |
| Borås Rångedala A, 15.1 km | 77 % rain 81 % | 81 % rain 81 % |
| Eskilstuna Eskilstuna A, 3.6 km | 96 % rain 85 % | 91 % rain 92 % |
| Falun Borlänge Flygplats, 20.4 km | 87 % | 89 % |
| Gällivare Gällivare A, 0.9 km | 75 % rain 89 % | 65 % rain 94 % |
| Gävle Gävle A, 4.7 km | 97 % rain 78 % | 97 % rain 87 % |
| Göteborg Göteborg A, 1.8 km | 90 % rain 86 % | 90 % rain 95 % |
| Halmstad Halmstad flygplats, 2.6 km | 85 % | 82 % |
| Helsingborg Helsingborg A, 4.6 km | 88 % rain 86 % | 85 % rain 89 % |
| Jokkmokk Jokkmokk Flygplats, 19.1 km | 65 % rain 93 % | 68 % rain 96 % |
| Jönköping Jönköping-Axamos Flygplats, 5.9 km | 84 % | 82 % |
| Kalmar Kalmar flygplats, 4.6 km | 88 % | 87 % |
| Karlskrona Karlskrona-Söderstjerna, 1.3 km | 96 % rain 87 % | 97 % rain 94 % |
| Karlstad Karlstad Flygplats, 11.9 km | 86 % | 89 % |
| Kiruna Kiruna, 2.9 km | 94 % | 91 % |
| Kristianstad Linderöd, 23.4 km | 83 % | 81 % |
| Linköping Linköping-Malmslätt, 5.9 km | 89 % rain 69 % | 92 % rain 88 % |
| Luleå Luleå-Kallax Flygplats, 4.8 km | 78 % rain 89 % | 76 % rain 93 % |
| Lund Malmö A, 16.8 km | 94 % rain 85 % | 93 % rain 96 % |
| Malmö Malmö A, 5.8 km | 86 % rain 83 % | 84 % rain 96 % |
| Mora Mora A, 5.6 km | 89 % rain 75 % | 92 % rain 90 % |
| Norrköping Norrköping-SMHI, 2.4 km | 91 % rain 70 % | 93 % rain 84 % |
| Nyköping Oxelösund, 10.6 km | 88 % | 90 % |
| Skellefteå Skellefteå Flygplats, 15.1 km | 99 % | 97 % |
| Stockholm Stockholm-Observatoriekullen A, 1.6 km | 96 % rain 72 % | 97 % rain 87 % |
| Strömstad Nordkoster A, 11 km | 84 % rain 76 % | 84 % rain 93 % |
| Sundsvall Sundsvall-Timrå Flygplats, 16.4 km | 82 % | 83 % |
| Södertälje Tullinge, 16.2 km | 91 % rain 70 % | 91 % rain 83 % |
| Trollhättan Såtenäs, 29.4 km | 83 % rain 83 % | 86 % rain 84 % |
| Umeå Umeå Flygplats, 4 km | 92 % | 89 % |
| Uppsala Uppsala Aut, 1.4 km | 96 % rain 79 % | 99 % rain 86 % |
| Visby Visby Flygplats, 4.5 km | 90 % rain 73 % | 90 % rain 85 % |
| Västerås Eskilstuna A, 26.6 km | 96 % rain 85 % | 92 % rain 93 % |
| Växjö Växjö A, 3.7 km | 96 % rain 86 % | 97 % rain 88 % |
| Ystad Malmö-Sturup Flygplats, 29.7 km | 86 % | 86 % |
| Örebro Örebro Flygplats, 10.4 km | 93 % | 97 % |
| Örnsköldsvik Örnsköldsviks Flygplats, 18.8 km | 85 % | 78 % |
| Östersund Östersund-Frösön Flygplats, 7.8 km | 88 % | 93 % |
How we count
Every hour we save the forecasts from SMHI and MET Norway for 40 places. Once the hour has passed, we compare them with what the nearest SMHI weather station, at most 30 km away, actually measured.
We count forecasts made 18–30 hours ahead, roughly the forecast for tomorrow. The temperature counts as right if it was within 2 degrees of the measurement. Rain or no rain counts as right if both the forecast and the measurement showed rain (0.1 mm or more in an hour), or both showed no rain.
The average error is how many degrees the forecast was off on average, up or down.
The numbers apply to the places in the table and say nothing about other weather apps. Yr shows MET Norway’s forecasts, but the app may round or present them slightly differently.
All numbers are available as JSON in our open API: /v1/skill